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X in Crisis: A Comedy Drama That Tackles the Realities of Modern Life - Download Here

In May 2023, Global X Research surveyed 1,030 individuals in the United States regarding their views on the ongoing regional banking crisis and the personal implications of it. Topics ranged from knowledge of how regulatory bodies are reacting and overall confidence in the banking system/markets to possible opportunities for online banking and impact to credit availability.

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In Table 1, I delineate some steps that US public health and medical institutions, agencies, and organizations could take (but have rarely taken) to foster links between work supporting democratic governance, tackling the climate crisis, and health equity. Articulating these action-oriented practical steps matters because having a positive vision of what to do is as necessary as naming the harms that need to be prevented [18, 20]. To date, the public health and medical literature remains scarce to non-existent on the health-related and climate-related harms of political gerrymandering and voter suppression [21], and, to a lesser degree, the census undercount [22]. We can do better: to advance not only the public health and medical scientific evidence in relation to these issues of subverted democratic governance, but also to apply the existing social science evidence on these powerful drivers of human and planetary health harms and health inequities. For the health of current and future generations, of people and of the other species with whom our lives are interdependent, we can afford no less.

The COVID-19 health emergency is reminding all members of the scientific community of the reasons we embarked on research careers: we know that research is vital and valuable and can save lives. During this crisis, we are accelerating research production [23]. It is reassuring that society has come to recognize the fundamental role of solid scientific evidence [24].

Strong mobilization of the Brazilian scientific community took place in a very short time to respond to the COVID-19 crisis, presenting 789 scientific proposals to address the most urgent problems posed by the pandemic. The interaction of universities, industries and governments is essential. In the absence of this linkage in Brazil, it is virtually impossible to perform translational research, that is, to take the results from the bench to the bedside, and from there to the healthcare system. It is necessary to enhance and encourage the interaction between universities and public research centers, which are involved in the production of scientific knowledge, and private companies, which specialize in production on an industrial scale.

The literature on disproportionate policy response relies on two main anchor concepts: policy overreaction and policy underreaction (Maor 2017). Although both concepts express violations from proportionality (Maor 2017), we are not aware of any attempt to empirically measure cross-sectionally the mismatch between the severity of a crisis and the intensity of policy response. By examining a specific policy area, namely financial containment of banking crisis and banking regulation, we aim to extend the analytical framework of disproportionate policy response and propose indexes that enable us to assess the extent of policy under- and overreaction.

Finally, in Eq. 5, i4 measures the mismatch between the committed financial expenditure and the actual expenditure. Again, we believe this ratio shed a light on the informative capacity of a given government to response to a banking crisis.

Government responses to the banking crisis concerned also regulation and supervision of banks. Relying on the World Bank surveys, it is possible to have an assessment of the types and the extent of responses at the level of regulatory policy instruments.

Measures of c, again the severity of the banking crises, are the same as in the previous section. For simplicity, in the remainder of this paper we use as a measure of the severity of the crisis only the peak of nonperforming loans as a % of total loans (c1). However, as mentioned before, many other instances of c can be considered.

Looking at the data stemming from Eqs. 2, 3, 4, and 5, we can have a nuanced assessment of the extent of the macroeconomic policy response of each country in the sample. To recall, those four indexes assess the mismatch between the extent of policy reaction r, measured by several measures of macroeconomic reactions (peak support in % of deposits, committed bailout expenditures as % of GDP, and actual expenditures as % of GDP) and the severity of the banking crisis, c, measured by the peak of nonperforming loans, the cumulative losses in the banking sector, and the net cost of bailout. The data presented in Table 1 refer to the period when the banking crisis occurred, so that we examine the prompt response of a given country. Because of data availability, the samples of EU countries vary between 15 and 17.

An analysis of the four macroeconomic indexes (Table 1) indicates that only Hungary and Latvia underreacted as measured by i1, which takes into account the relationship between the peak nonperforming loans and the peak of support of deposits. Similarly, there are only few values that are close to zero, indicating a response that is in line with the average responses of the sample of countries. Italy attested a value close to zero in the ratio between committed bailout expenditures and the cumulated losses of the banking sector (i2), and Denmark and Portugal were able to calibrate an appropriate response to the net cost of bailout through the actual budgetary expenditures (i3). Finally, Ireland actually spent almost all the committed bailout expenditure as measured by index i4. And this is an interesting finding, since Ireland is a country that has greatly overreacted to the banking crisis, committing bailout expenditure regardless of the extent of cumulative losses of the banking sector (i2) and the extent of actual expenditure regardless of the net cost of bailouts (i3). Another interesting case is Denmark, which tended to overreact in supporting banking deposits (i1) and committing bailout expenditures (i2 and i4). Other countries that had the tendency to overreact to the banking crisis were Greece (but only on the i2 index) and Belgium, which that tended to overreaction across all four indexes. Overall, the macroeconomic indexes attest to widespread policy overreaction, which led to stress or even crisis in public finances. Is it the same with the regulatory response?

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In the regulatory indexes, c is again the peak of nonperforming loans as a % of total loans (c1), while the instances of r refer to the aggregate measure of capital requirements (r4), to the liquidity and risk diversification (r5), and to the supervision power of banking authorities (r6), respectively, expressed as percentage changes. The reference years are 2006 (before the crisis) and 2011 (after the crisis). It is worth noting that there are some missing data of regulatory responses, especially for the first index measuring the response through capital requirement (i5 is only calculated for 10 EU member states, cf. Table 3). There are no data of Italy's peak of nonperforming loans (c1), and there are no data for Sweden in all three regulatory responses. What is more, indicators starting with a 0 on an ordinal scale have been rescaled by one unit to avoid undefined expression (by dividing by 0).

After illustrating the empirical findings associated with the proposed indexes of disproportionate responses to the banking crisis, we attempt to systematize this set of indexes according to a number of key conceptual dimensions and taxonomies of responses. Table 5 summarizes different dimensions of disproportionate policy reaction.

The final dimension of policy response attempts to qualitatively capture the overall reaction of a government to the banking crisis. Although this classification of the level of regulatory action can be considered a crude assessment of reform, it allows us to identify those few countries that tried to deal with the banking crisis exclusively through macroeconomic policy responses (Portugal and Slovenia). It also allows us to identify the few cases of a carefully calibrated mix of macroeconomic and banking regulation changes, for example Germany and the Netherlands. We were not able to find any examples of the ideal type of extreme reaction: no countries pursued a policy response that could be characterized as macroeconomic overreaction and banking regulation overreaction.

The goals of our piece of research are twofold. To begin with, we wanted to make a methodological contribution to the literature on disproportionate policy responses by developing a procedure to operationalize policy under- and overreactions that is suitable for comparative research. We did so by proposing a measure of (dis)proportionality that relates to both the average response of a sample of countries and to domestic-level variation in the severity of the crisis.

Only Portugal and Slovenia faced the banking crisis through a combination of macroeconomic measures and deregulation. No countries implemented both extreme macroeconomic policy and very stringent banking regulation and surveillance.

The proposed procedure is not specific to banking regulation and can be extended to other policy areas that are characterized by well-defined policy reactions in the form of policy outputs (e.g., decisions and regulations) to crisis events whose severity can be quantified and displays a certain variation across entities. For instance, promising areas of research would be food safety or the regulation of therapeutic products. More generally, further comparative policy analyses should look at three specific dimensions that this paper has overlooked. First, the extent of international coordination of policy responses needs to be carefully qualified. Second, in-depth qualitative analyses of the mix of policy responses should test the effectiveness of the proposed indexes by focusing on the most extreme cases of policy over- and underreaction. Third, it would be interesting to examine variations in patterns of disproportionality not only cross-country but also cross-sector.

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